Or Sometimes It is Just the Math Ok, I am an analysis geek. I admit it. And I have to say, I am blown away by the great analysis done by Nicholas Beaudrot on the GOP incumbent House races. Check out his spreadsheet: click here He shows how Obama makes us competitive not just in MI-07, and MI-09 but against McCotter, Rogers and Upton. WAHOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
The analysis behind the numbers:
I've attempted to build a very crude estimate of Barack Obama's performance on a district-by-district basis. I've given him 95% of the black vote, 60% of the Hispanic vote, 55% of the college white vote, and 35% of the non-college white vote. This gives him 43% of the overall white-plus-Asian/other vote, and just over 50% nationwide.
snip
Anywhere that Obama gets 45% of the vote or more, a strong local challenger has a shot at winning the district, especially if it's an open seat.
Then Beaudrot takes a look at GOP House Incumbent Races. Using the same parameters he arrives results and ranks them nationally. Look at our Michigan races:
Ranked 8th MI-09 Knollenberg Obama Projection 54.6%
Ranked 15th MI-11 McCotter Obama Projection 50.9%
Ranked 18th MI-08 Rogers Obama Projection 50.5%
Ranked 31st MI-06 Upton Obama Projection 48.6%
Beaudrot takes special notice of the Alexander/Rogers race in CD 08
For example Obama stands a chance at winning Mike Rogers district in MI-08 (Lansing, exurban Detroit), but Rogers is in the conservative half of the Republican Caucus. He should have a substantial challenger, but he doesn't. Here's the website of his opponent, Bob Alexander (D).
This AM, Bob Alexander's website BobAlexanderForCongress.com is experiencing Bandwith challenges. But he does have an Act Blue page here Given the results in the recent special House elections, and this analysis by Beaudrot, I gotta say I am optomistic!
